Cracks appearing in Australia's workforce

Australia is sitting on a workforce fault-line, with the cracks in our society starting to appear this year.

Leading Australian demographer Bernard Salt made the observation at State Training Providers Forum in Perth recently.

“The first of the baby boomers, those born in 1946, will start retiring this year,” said Salt.

“What’s going to happen when a large group of tradespeople from this demographic start disappearing almost on en masse? The loss of so many skilled people is going to have a profound impact on from the workforce.”

Salt thinks big and is concerned about issues and trends from a national perspective, giving forum participants plenty to consider when planning for the future.

While training issues weren’t the focus of his keynote address, he referred to some occupations that were under threat.

“Five years ago, more than a third of the nurses in Australia were over 50, so they could decide to leave any time soon,” Salt said.

“The same scenario applies to religious ministers, across all faiths. In 2006, 48 per cent of them were over 50.

“These are just random occupations in the Census. What we should be doing is having this data for all occupations so we can better plan for workforce needs.”

While workforce shortages will rise rapidly, Salt believes there is some hope to halt the sudden loss in labour.

“The federal government will, I hope, do something drastic and allow a large influx of skilled overseas labour, but there also needs to be a reinvention of what we consider retirement to be,” Salt said.

“We need to tap into the narrative of how people want to live their lives. These days people can look forward on average to 20 years of what could be considered retirement.

“But people don’t want to simply stay home and look after the grandkids. They still want challenges. Then there’s those boomers haven’t saved enough, so they have to work beyond traditional working age.

“The skill will be to help them find new niches. This could be through short courses and other incentives for them to remain in the workforce.”

Australia vulnerable to a "desperate" world, says Salt

Western Australia could find itself at the centre of growing international tension over its mineral wealth. And governments aren’t prepared.

Leading Australian demographer Bernard Salt made the prediction at a forum of WA Vocational Educational Trainers recently.

“The world wants and needs what we have, and there’s going to be a made scramble for all of these things,” Salt said.

“We have what the world wants. That makes us valuable, but also vulnerable.”

Alarmingly, the scramble will come sooner than later.

“Most people are predicting this will happen around 2070, but I think it will come by 2020,” said Salt, who was addressing 200 VET industry representatives in a forum sponsored by the Department of Workforce Training and Development.

“For me, this is the biggest issue facing Australia, and governments are doing nothing about it.

“Look at where our military presence is. We have Lavarack Barracks in Townsville. It was built in the sixties. What’s it protecting now? We have Robertson Barracks in Darwin, which was expanded during the East Timor crisis.

“But there’s no military assets of note between Darwin and Perth – an area that contains pretty much all of Australia’s wealth – about $43 million worth of gas and oil.

“The Chinese have already demonstrated they need the raw materials. Gorgon was about China shoring up its assets.”

Salt was quietly scathing of government inaction, saying while we had aligned ourselves militarily with the US, we expect our financial support to come from China.

“China is now the emerging power, but it remains to be seen how governments deal with the dilemma.”

Salt called for a massive boost to infrastructure, including a larger military presence with at least 5000 soldiers, and a regional town of 150,000.

“It only makes sense to put the military hardware where you are most exposed.

“This is the biggest issue confronting us.”

Rudd "smart" on climate change

That Kevin Rudd is a clever fella. He's bagged other nations to make it appear as though he's tough on greenhouse emissions, knowing the others would never reach the targets. This makes Australia appear to be the world policeman on emissions. More importantly, it makes Rudd look like a concerned citizen at home. It's all about the next election, of course. Countries are only concerned about their domestic affairs.

Bikies' PR company taking a risk

The Brisbane PR company that represents bikies has this to say on its web site: "We will not support business activities that we believe cause fundamental harm to people, communities, or the environment."

With reputation management a cornerstone of PR, I wonder if they're risking their reputation by having the bikies as a client?

Whatever the effect this will have on the PR company (whose ethics I find hard to fathom) certainly the bikies are spending up big. The campaign they're running has all bases covered, including a raft of web sites (national and State bodies in NSW, SA, Qld and WA). Some are on Twitter. However, I do wonder why one of the links leads to a gang in Norway.

The angle they're taking is that the proposed legislation, curtailing the right of freedom of association, will affect everyone in the community. Certainly, they have a point. But, as WA Police Commissioner Karl O'Callahan pointed out, it only applies to groups with criminal leanings. Scouts, fear not.

Women on the front line a nonsense

The Department of Defence has done it again: producing that old PR angle of pushing of women to serve on the front line.

The PR blitz hit the media yesterday, with the story even reaching the 7.30 Report. Neil James from the Defence Association was interviewed, and so was some obscure Liberal who served as a grunt for 10 years. They even had some grey-hair libertarian-type woman who said it didn't worry her if women wanted to be killed in battle.

The only reason Defence takes this position is because they can't get enough blokes to fill the ranks. Air Force TV ads currently focus on female mechanics, technicians and heavy-lift loadmasters.

The Army was even saying women could serve as commandos and in the SAS. Imagine the guffaws from the Regiment at the prospect.

The Brigadier in charge of 1 Brigade supports the move. Sure he does. Yes, he said the ladies can share the same risks in Afghanistan. Hmm. I wonder what would happen to GI Jane when she is captured by the Taliban?

Whatever you think about having women serving in direct combat roles, the actual clumsy approach in promoting it in in dire need of a rethink. They're still using the same PR methods employed in 2001, when I was serving in East Timor (and A Current Affair pursued it, without success).

The female reporter, who had a brother in the Army, wanted to go the the "front line" (the border with West Timor). The deal was if she could carry a standard pack up some stairs to the helicopter pad we'd take her. She never got it off the ground.

Hello. Men fight wars. Always have, always will. Perhaps Defence should focus on how to attract and retain them. Oh that's right, they have, and failed. So out comes PR plan B.

Where the PR jobs are (or aren't)

I've been monitoring national PR jobs for the past six months. It comes in handy to let students know where their best chances are (numerically, anyway).

Being in Perth, the students (and professionals) are at a disadvantage. There are more PR jobs in New Zealand than here.

In the past seven months (from Nov 08-May 09) there have been 553 fulltime PR jobs advertised through Career One, Seek and TPA (which I think may have gone bust). This also includes overseas positions which filter through.

As you'd expect, most jobs (182, or 33%) are in Sydney, followed by Melbourne (109, 20%) and Brisbane (96, 17%). NZ comes in next with 54 jobs, or 10%. Thereafter, it's slim pickings.

Poor, old Perth languishes with only three percent, or 19 jobs, in that time.

The trend lines show a spike in February (113 positions), with a dip in April to 75, then picking up again to 87 in May.

Reserve Bank blind to conflict of interest

The Reserve Bank of Australia has a problem, but doesn't know it.

Its assistant governor, Robert Rankin, is involved with a company that has been linked to shady deals (Africa and Asia) overseas. Worse, that company supplies polymers (used to make money) to the Reserve.

Wait. There's more. Another two Reserve Bank appointees are also linked to the company.

Is there any acknowledgement from the Reserve there's a problem? Not a jot.

All the Bank says is that it will ask the company, Securency, about its methods.

Am I missing something?

Puzzling support for Olympic Torch Relay

I found it strange that Aboriginal elders welcomed the Beijing Torch Relay to Canberra.

For one oppressed people to welcome the Chinese, who oppress the Tibetans, is just weird.

Also just as troubling is aboriginal Olympic gold medallist Nova Peris’s decision to run with the torch. Honestly, athletes just don’t think further than sport. The same goes for you, Thorpie and SMH journalist Jacquelin Magnay.

More blogs at the PR Lab, http://www.prlab.com.au

Glad (it's) all over

As the old Dave Clark Five song of the same (headline) name says, I'm glad the election is over, if nothing more than to give us a break from the tedium of campaigning (and babies).

Labor's victory was deserved, given that for the most part the Liberals simply weren't listening.

Maxine McKew, the Labor candidate for Bennelong, who, at the time of writing, seems to have ousted the Prime Minister from his seat, gave a pointer as to why the Liberals had lost.

McKew, a former high-profile TV journalist and first-time candidate, said she was amazed at the people she met while door-knocking and visiting shopping centres. Well, surprise, surprise.

They're called Australians, or more precisely, constituents ... the people who just sacked a government ... and a PM who had held his seat for 30 years.

This is what politicians, particularly those in power, forget: that they represent people. If the people aren't being listened to, they have the amazing opportunity to have their say, even if it is only once every three years.

Into the election

We're just finishing week one of six in the federal election campaign, highlighted by John Howard's promise of tax cuts and a negative advertising campaign. Opposition leader Kevin Rudd has shown nothing, except a nice wardrobe.

I would have thought Rudd could have matched Howard's $34 billion "promise" with a counter plan to spend the equivalent on government services, such as health, education, water, roads (well, maybe rail).

People have indicated they would rather the government spend money that way. Rudd should be pushing the line that by the time the tax cuts start next year (and end in 2011), they will be eaten by inflation.

Tax cuts are really a simplistic offer to a mostly gullible public, who can't remember what Howard promised before the last election.

Let's have some real vision. What about de-politicising the Public Service?

Howard calls election at last

It took him long enough. After months of fake campaigning and pork-barrelling, John Howard has called the federal election for November 24.

Now we'll really start to see and hear some spin ... though it's more likely to be seen, as elections these days are fought on our television screens.

The media maniuplation will be (hopefully) interesting to watch/see/hear. Every day a new photo opportunity and plethora of sound grabs. The same methods will be employed by Labor.

However, I detect that voters are wise to the tactics and have already cast their ballots. Certainly the polls have been consistently predicting a Labor victory for months.

As they say: "watch this space" (and lots of others).

Military muzzled

I'll take a guess why the military said nothing about the shooting of children in Afghanistan: the government told it not to.

This is a prime example of the military being manipulated by the government. It's a dangerous area to be dabbling in.

The government "spin" machine controls everything its faithful officers do and say. They, in turn, are advised by public servants (all schooled by the government at Defence-sponsored PR courses). Never mind PR supposedly being about honesty and transparency. I guess they don't teach that one at the government school.

The bearer of the bad news, Brigadier Nickolic, has just come into the "top" PR job, probably without any formal journalism or communications qualifications. I'll bet he's never even written a media release but but that he's been through the standard government "how to handle tricky questions" course.

Most of the people in that position are former Special Forces commanders who are being prepped for higher duties. The previous spokesman, Brig Peter "Gus" Gould was a former SAS commander. They stay about 12 months and move on.

In the years I've been in Defence PR, both in (Army) uniform and as a public servant, it's become obvious that since Tampa and the Children Overboard cases, the military has not been at liberty to conduct its own PR affairs.

As a senior PR Officer, I could not contact the media directly without telling the media office in Canberra. I was not allowed to distribute media releases. Never mind that I had worked on metropolitan dailies for 17 years. It seemed I could not be trusted. The politicians had to know everything that might occur.

Just before I resigned, John Howard's office put out a message to commanders, asking them what events or activities they had coming up that he might be able to appear at. If that's not using the military for political purposes, what is?

The bottom line is the Hoawrd government is so afraid something might damage its reputation. ("It [the control] will to get worse before the election," was the comment to me by a senior uniformed officer a few months ago). They do it across all departments.

Yet despite all the resources it pumps into PR, the government's reputation is still lousy. So why bother with the layers of media advisers? Let the military get on with being pro-active in its PR stance. I'd also hope one of those brave military spokesmen would have the courage to tell the government what it should do with its spin. Trouble is they wouldn't get a medal.

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